The Presidential campaign has begun in earnest with some of the candidates unveiling their proposed programmes to move the country forward if elected. Assistant Editor, CHINWE MADUAGWU, spoke with Mr. Alex Ekemenah, a keen political watcher and Editor of the NEXTMONEY Magazine who analysed the policy documents of some of the contenders, among other issues.
TNE: What do you make of the large number of Presidential candidates for the 2019 elections?
To me, that speaks volumes. This is the first time we are having this high number of presidential candidates. However, one wonders, who really are these people? Have they been in the political system before now? Do we know them or not?
The large number of candidates to me is a problem because we do not know the identity of most of these candidates. We only know about a few of them who have been around in the system since the inception of this republic.
So where does one start from in making a choice of whom to cast their votes for when there are about 80 candidates asking for support.
I see that as a problem because the mass of the electorate will have difficulty identifying who and who is serious.
TNE: Do people necessarily have to ‘know’ an individual before giving their support if the person presents a document that offers to deal with the yearnings of the people?
There is a relationship between a person and a policy document he is presenting because it is the person that is presenting the policy document. If you don’t know the person, the pedigree, the background of such a person, whatever policy document the person is presenting becomes something that is very strange to you. That’s where the problem lies.
TNE: What’s your take on the Next Level Policy document of the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari?
I have looked at it and tried to make comparisons between it and what he promised in 2015. The issues for me are; what was in the 2015 policy document? What were the promises he made? Was he able to fulfil those promises?
Now, he presents a new document that has integrity problem; integrity problem because some people have come out to challenge it alleging he plagiarised it. That’s a problem. But that’s a problem for the informed. For the majority of Nigerians who are going to cast their votes in February 2019, that may not be a problem.
He promises a new regime of what he will do for us in the next four years if he is re-elected. My first question is; what was he able to achieve with his first policy document? Was he convincing enough that he has been able to achieve something that will warrant us to re-elect him again? That’s a problem.
The economy has gone bad, there is insecurity of life and property, and there is low level of infrastructural development, among others. Even his image is questioned, that is to put it very mildly. So, there is first of all, a disconnect between the old policy document and the new one.
Secondly, one doubts very much that he will be able to achieve anything out of what he is promising Nigerians today if he was not able to achieve half of what he promised in 2015.
TNE: Give us your thoughts on the document of the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
I have seen and read the policy document of the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar. It also speaks volumes. It shows that there are serious minded people behind the document because the document took a holistic approach to what he perceived as the problem of Nigeria; from the economy to security, to governance issues, to our foreign policy.
Atiku as a person has demonstrated beyond all reasonable doubt that given the chance he is able to achieve something on the basis of the document. I base my position on the fact that he is a well known businessman. His businesses all over the country are thriving; we have not had a case of where workers are protesting in any of his companies. They are well paid and they are making profit. I see him as a good business manager and I also look at him as somebody who is capable of managing human beings and resources.
The man also comes across as somebody who fit all the region of Nigeria in terms of outlook, in terms of disposition. I’ve never heard a case of discrimination on his part against anybody. He has established a pedigree of a completely detribalised person and I think that if he is elected as a president he would be able to accommodate everybody in what he called inclusive government.
When you talk about inclusive government, it doesn’t mean that everybody will be in Aso Rock, but everybody would have a sense of belonging that this government is standing for me; that this government is capable of protecting my interest as a Nigerian unlike what has been our experience in the last four years or thereabout.
Atiku’s policy document touches on all key areas of our society and I would like to believe that he may be able to do something for us beyond what we have today.
TNE: Let’s look at the ACPN Candidate, Oby Ezekwesili. How do you see her policy document?
Her document is also something that demands serious attention in looking at what the woman has to offer us. First of all, she will not be the first woman that will come out to contest for the presidency, but interestingly enough, she will be the first that has that carriage, that calibre, that pedigree and I think we should listen to her very well.
We should ask the question, ‘Madam, what do you really have for us? Are you here to entertain us or do you mean business? Given the kind of politics that has been on in Nigeria for almost 20 years now, are you capable of managing all the dichotomies, all the contradictions, all the antagonisms based on ethnic considerations, based on religious considerations, based on gender considerations, based on so many things?
She has promised so many things which I think seriously speaking, looks like she is having a pigeon-holed technocratic look at the problems of Nigeria. Nigeria’s problems are beyond technocratic pigeon hole.
There are lots of factors that impact on Nigeria’s politics, that impact on the ability of the Chief executive officer, who is the president to be able to deliver. She should not take a narrow view of what she thinks are the problems of Nigeria. That will not take her far. She must look at it from the global perspective. That is the only way to understand the dynamics that are shaping and controlling the destiny of the country. That’s my take on Ezekwesili.
TNE: Before we look at some of the other contenders, you talked about factors that impact on Nigeria’s politics. Can you elaborate a bit on those factors?
First of all, any president of a country like Nigeria must have the mental capacity and that mental capacity is determined by the level of your intellectual exposure and your intellectual exposure must be of a high grade; so, it cannot be something that is questionable.
You must have a standard, a benchmark which you cannot fall below. You must have that mental capacity and having that mental capacity means you must have a broad view of what Nigeria is all about.
Secondly, you must also have the political mind to embrace all parties not just that because you are elected from the platform of your political party then you only owe allegiance to that party. Once you are elected president, everybody must come under your umbrella, everybody must stand under your protection and that is what it means to be the President of a country. Whether I voted for you or not, it doesn’t come into question anymore.
Thirdly, you must also be able to understand the external factors and forces that are preying on your country and have the diplomatic ability to manage these factors and forces whether in terms of politics, in terms of the economy. No matter the challenges you are going through, you must have that ability to know where the wind is blowing or where the wind is coming from so that you are not caught off guard when events happen in your country and you are not able to decipher what forces are at play.
These are the three critical factors.
TNE: Before we come back to these three factors in greater details can we look at Donald Luke’s policy document?
Sorry to say this, it’s not the tuition free education that’s the problem of Nigeria’s education system. The problem is that Nigeria’s education system is broken; you must have the ability to fix it before you now decide if it’s going to be free or not. The Nigerian educational system is completely broken and this has been a process in the last 20 to 30 years.
So, he must be able to tell us first, what has gone wrong with the Nigerian educational system. What are the solutions to these problems, he must be able to tell us. From kindergarten to tertiary level and joined to that is the subsidiary system of education; what are you going to do about it? For instance, you have vocational schools, in the northern part of the country you have the amajiri and the rest of it, how are you going to tackle that? Is that system of education up north relevant for the modern times in which we are? Will you be able to challenge the orthodoxy behind this system? So you have to take the problem from the base.
Tuition fee or no tuition fee is neither here nor there. Everywhere in the world people pay to have education so if Nigerians are paying today it’s no big deal.
This ideology behind having a free education is a hangover from many years back, from the western region of the old days. The population at that time was not the same as at today. What is the amount of fund we are going to commit? First of all, you have to rehabilitate the entire infrastructure, the hard part of it and the soft part of it. If you’re offering free education it also means that at least from primary to secondary school you want to offer the school pupils a kind of free meal; will you be able to fund it sustainably? We can ask so many questions about this.
TNE: Looking at kingsley Moghalu of the YPP, what’s your take on him?
I’ve look at what Moghalu has presented as his policy document. It’s also very interesting; seriously speaking he took it from a high intellectual point of view. That is commendable; he is somebody who knows his onions, somebody who knows what he wants, somebody who thinks he can deliver. But you see Nigeria’s situation today, I’m sorry to say, is beyond textbook kind of understanding and that’s where my problem with his policy is. He said categorically that he’s a technocrat. We all know the history of technocrats who have been in governance and their level of performance in governance. For you to be a leader, it is not just enough to be a technocrat, it requires more and that takes us right back to those three factors a leader must have. For a technocrat, the mental capacity is not in doubt. Secondly, the political broadmindedness may not be there and then in facing the outside world, the diplomatic ability to manage events may also not be there because you’re looking at it from a very narrow angle and that’s where we are.
TNE: Now, more or less you have placed Moghalu where you think he is. How do you situate the others, Buhari, Atiku, Ezekwesili and Duke on the three factors?
We can look at where each of them is coming from. The incumbent president, Buhari, had once been a military head of state but when he was the military head of state and now is not the same and we can see the difference today. What he thought he could do then, he can no longer do within a democratic setting, it’s not possible and we’ve also seen the fault lines. For one to now want to entrust the destiny of this country to such a person for another four years, they have to think twice.
Then we have Atiku. Atiku has also been vice president of the country for eight years and he has been exposed to the inner workings of government. He’s not a stranger to the factors, forces and dynamics that drive government and during the time he was the vice president there were occasions when he was accused of all sorts of things, but the interesting thing is that nobody has been able to pin anything on this man. So that for me is a plus, a big plus. He may have his own weaknesses no doubt about that, but the man has been able to demonstrate his strength of character, his ability to manage things, even the problems that were hauled at him, he was able to manage efficiently. That to me stands him a good chance that if he is given the opportunity, he will take us from where we are today to the next level.
For Ezekweili, she’s a good woman, has good diction and is versatile. But when the chips are down will she really be able to work under the immense pressure that comes to weigh heavily on the number one seat. She has worked with international institutions and the rest, again that’s where this technocratic problem comes from.
Duke is a fine man; again he has been able to come out clean. He was the governor of Cross River state for eight years, he is actually a senior citizen in terms of laying the foundation for what we have in the country today in his own area of jurisdiction and he was able to establish landmark infrastructure for the state. Whether those infrastructure are still working or not is a different matter entirely, those infrastructure at that time attracted world attention. I believe that if he is given the chance, he will also be able to deliver more of such infrastructure for the country, but the political system we are running in Nigeria today does not seem to favour him so much and it’s this North-South dichotomy. We also have so many candidates coming from the southern part more than from the northern part at this time and that is also very significant because people are waking up and that means a time will come when we will no longer take anymore the kind of things that are being thrown at us from the northern part of the country.
I have no problem with Duke being our president because I have that trust that he will be able to give us something that all of us can be proud of across the zones.
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TNE: Now when all is said and done, among the 80 candidates vying for the presidency, who in your opinion are the real contenders?
There are only very few of them that you can count them on the fingers of the hand. The high number of contenders, however, is a good development in itself. It means the political environment is gradually being liberalised. Conditionalities that exited in 1999, 2003, 2007, are no longer in existence. The atmosphere is being liberalised, the boundary is being widened, it’s as if anybody is free to come out and contest and prove him or herself.
For some of those candidates, I wonder if they will be able to win election in their wards. But it is good. Let us have them. Let them prove what they are capable of giving to us and with time, we will mature. The country will mature, the electorate will mature, the political system itself will mature and we will gradually move to where we will be able to sift out the wheat from the shaft.
TNE: Finally, what do you think will drive the 2019 elections?
There are several drivers that will drive the election. The first and the most important is the money issue. Not all these political parties have the kind of money needed to sustain a nationwide campaign; touching all the regions, crossing each state. The influence of money is still very strong.
The problem of rigging is also something to be worried about. I doubt very much that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, will be able to take control and ensure that we have a hitch-free election. All along the role of the security agencies is there and in most case, they work in favour of the incumbent party. So that is a problem because the security agencies have been politicised to a very large extent. Take for instance, someone is launching his presidential campaign and invited all the service chiefs to be in attendance. What have service chiefs got to do with a presidential campaign and at the very point in time when soldiers were being killed in the battle field of insurgency. So that calls to question the neutrality of the security agencies in making sure that we have a hitch-free election.
Also, as somebody mentioned, the incumbent party has shown us body language that we need to interpret carefully. They have shown that the trust we have in them in managing a hitch-free election devoid of rigging and violence may not be possible. That’s a serious problem.
So these are the three drivers that I see that will shape what the result of the 2019 election.