More than ever before, the coast appears to be clear about those who will be fighting for the prestigious seat in the Aso Rock Vila, come February 2019.
Although it was clear, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari would fly the flag of the All Progressives Congress, APC, during the election, it was just made formal on Saturday.
At the party’s convention held in Abuja, APC faithful across the country had formally endorsed Mr. Buhari.
The action followed the outcome of a direct primary, which was held in the 36 states and FCT last week.
With President Buhari’s endorsement, all eyes and ears where towards Port Harcourt, Rivers State, where the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, was holding its convention.
The PDP convention, which was mired by controversy over the venue, had the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, threatening the party leadership for considering a venue for the exercise outside Port Harcourt.
But in its usual “family affair” approach, the party had settled the rift, settled for Port Harcourt for its convention and deployed men and materials to make it happen.
After a keenly contested primary which saw 12 strong aspirants struggling to grab the party’s presidential flag, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, finally got it.
In same the vein, former Governor of Cross River State, Donald Duke clinched the ticket of the Social Democratic Party, SDP and would challenge Messrs Buhari, Atiku and others in the race that promises to be intriguing.
Notwithstanding the number of presidential candidates that may be slugging it out during the February 2019 election, the battle will largely be between Mr. Buhari and Mr. Atiku.
It promises to be a battle of the Titans.
Well-positioned for the battle, Mr. Buhari has a lot to his favour including the proverbial power of incumbency. Already, many have argued that the power of incumbency is not solid and pointing to the case of former President Goodluck Jonathan, who lost an election he conducted.
Those who think Mr. Buhari would trounce other candidates readily point to the Ekiti and Osun governorship elections, where the ruling party exhibited crude power to get their candidates through to “victory.”
But the APC did not take the two elections without knocks from critical stakeholders within and outside the country.
Among those who came hard on the government and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, particularly on the Osun election were governments of the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.
In a joint statement, the foreign observer teams faulted the Thursday, September 27, supplementary governorship election in Osun State.
They alleged serious irregularities and victimization of the opposition party elements, observers and journalists.
The implication is the international community already suspects the Nigerian government’s sincerity in conducting a free and fair election and this could put Mr. Buhari in a tight corner and force him to play by the rules.
Again, Mr. Buhari has a huge war chest to draw from and would have more than enough to fund his campaign across the country.
But his age and failing health would be serious minuses for him given the strenuous nature of campaign and consultations. Mr. Buhari will easily be fatigued and may break down in the course of the campaign if he takes it as seriously as it were.
Another strong point against Mr. Buhari is his inability to stop the killings and occupation of communities across the country by Fulani herdsmen.
Many Nigerians who campaigned for him in 2015, including former Presidents, Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida have abandoned him and called out the people to reject his second term bid.
Publisher Dele Momodu and even Publisher of Sahara Reporters, who ardently supported the president, have separately advised him to return to Daura.
His situation is akin to that of Mr. Jonathan, who was rejected by Nigerians for failing to check corruption and stop Boko Haram’s carnage in the North-east.
Today, many criticise Mr. Buhari for turning blind eyes to corruption by top members of his party while going after members of the opposition, who are speaking up against what they term “poor leadership” and pervasive bloodshed in the country.
The president is most likely to be affected by the general belief that his government has brought hunger to the nation. To some, the economic situation is worse than in the days of GEJ and the rate of unemployment is simply alarming.
However, some of the achievements for which the Buhari’s administration has been praised for, including “depletion of Boko Haram, taking the nation’s economy out of recession, boosting agriculture and power supply” will form the basis of his campaign.
It is doubtful whether the ruling party under the chairmanship of former Governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole, would muster the needed cohesion in the APC to deliver the president.
Already, many chapters of the party have drawn swords against Mr. Oshiomhole including Ogun, Zamfara, Cross River and even Rivers.
But the combination of his years of activism as the leader of the Nigeria Labour Congress, NLC, and his experience in politics put him in good stead for the battle ahead.
The influence of some top politicians known for their depth in political gymnastics and strategy like the APC national leader Bola Tinubu, former Governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi, and some of the governors in their respective states will also work in the interest of Mr. Buhari.
For Mr. Atiku, this is a fight to the finish. It is about the best opportunity he has been waiting for since the nation returned to democratic rule in 1999. It is about the fourth time he has been at it. Until this time, he had never had a platform and opportunity as good as the current one.
Mr. Atiku emergence coincides with the seeming rebirth of the PDP and its drive to remove itself from its current status as the leading opposition party.
That much was said by the party’s National Chairman, Prince Uche Secondus, at the opening of the convention in Port Harcourt.
“On December 11, 2017, in my acceptance speech, after you graciously elected the current National Working Committee, I solemnly promised: that all necessary steps will be taken to avoid a repeat of our past mistakes. Indeed, we have learnt our lessons and by this convention, we are now set to forge a new path for our great party and Nigeria.
“Exactly ten months after that pledge, I can with gratitude to God and in utmost humility report to you that the PDP of today is improved, enhanced and has migrated from an opposition Party to a ruling Party in waiting.”
With his influence that rivals that of any sitting president and extensive connection across the country, Mr. Atiku stands a good chance to gather as many votes as would be required to win an election any day, any time.
He has nurtured and sustained a solid political structure over the years and has his investments scattered in many parts of the country and abroad.
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By far, Mr. Atiku is the most successful among all the candidates running for the Aso Rock job, come 2019.
Apart from the allegation of corruption levelled against him by the government and his former boss, Mr. Obasanjo, for which the Waziri Adamawa has serially challenged his accusers to prove their claims, Mr. Atiku is not known for family squabbles, controversy or ailment.
He is as strong and he is smart and could campaign nonstop across the country without any hassle.
His wealth of experience over the years comes as a good asset. He is capable of reading political events and acting well ahead to get the required result.
For instance, he was aware of the fact the APC would deny him an opportunity to challenge Mr. Buhari and he defected to PDP in good time and consulted widely and deeply and it paid off with the opposition party’s biggest ticket.
The alliance struck with about 40 other parties under the aegis of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) is also an advantage for the main opposition party candidate.
With the support of the other political parties, who would not only collapse their structures into that of the PDP but vote massively for Mr. Atiku, the cause of removing Mr. Buhari looks as good as sealed.
In a nutshell, Mr. Buhari should not be deceived that he would have an easy battle for the Presidency.
With political heavyweights in the North like Sule Lamido, Bafarawa, Kwakwanso, Saraki, Tambuwal and IBB, TY Danjuma and the others supporting Mr. Atiku, it would be difficult for Mr. Buhari to get the kind of votes he got in 2015.
Unlike in 2015, when he was the sole candidate from the North, the emergence of Mr. Atiku from the same geopolitical area will divide the votes between the two of them.
The battleground would likely be the South-west because a majority in the South-south, South-east and North-central (Middle Belt) won’t vote for the president to take another four years.
In fact, it would be difficult for him to garner up to 40 per cent of votes in the three regions.
Another contender with a relative showing is Mr. Duke, who has promised to turn around the country’s economy.
Unlike Buhari and Atiku, he is closer to the youth and has the subtle backing of Mr. Obasanjo, but he has no identifiable political structure in any part of the country.
There is a strong possibility of Mr. Duke pitching tents with either the PDP or APC in the course of the campaign.
Nigeria is at another crossroads in history and the outcome of the 2019 polls may make or mar the country. But Nigerians pray for the best.