Since the restoration of democratic rule in 1999, former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s influence in Nigerian politics cannot be underestimated; neither can it be over emphasized. In this report, our political correspondent, YUSUF MOHAMMED, takes a look at what his letter to President Muhammadu Buhari portends for the President and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The former President has had a say on who leads Nigeria since he left office on May 29, 2007. He supported the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua against General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida and his Vice, Atiku Abubakar for the presidential ticket of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Yar’Adua emerged as candidate of the party and eventually won the general election and was sworn in as the second democratically elected president of Nigeria in the fourth republic.
Yar’Adua who many described as someone who “had good plans for the country” had health challenges, which led to his death. He died after two years in office. In 2009, then Acting President, Goodluck Jonathan was sworn in as President of Nigeria to replace the late Yar’Adua. That did not go down well with the northerners who felt it was their turn to continue in power after Obasanjo from the South had governed for eight years.
Months leading to the 2011 general election were laden with tension as the northern hierarchy of the PDP urged Jonathan to obey the “gentle man agreement of the party,” which zoned power to the North for eight years. They urged Jonathan not to contest in 2011.
Babangida and former Vice President Abubakar saw the zoning principle as an opportunity for them. While the northerners were scheming, Obasanjo in his usual fashion endorsed Jonathan not minding who ox was gored. He stormed Aso Rock and said “You must run, Jonathan.”
Obasanjo’s endorsement meant that the northerners had to devise a means to defeat Jonathan at the primaries. As a result, the idea of “a consensus candidate” was born.
In that regard, Atiku outsmarted Babangida by getting the northern leaders to endorse him as the consensus candidate from the North to contest the primaries with Jonathan. Upon hearing the news, Obasanjo reacted when asked by a journalist how he felt about Atiku’s endorsement. He simply said in pidgin English, “I dey laugh.”
The rest is history. Jonathan defeated Atiku hands down at the primaries and with Obasanjo’s support went ahead to defeat the Congress for Progress Change, CPC candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari and All Nigerians Peoples Party, ANPP candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau to emerge president.
Obasanjo’s letter to President Muhammadu Buhari was not the first he would write to a president. In December 2013, he wrote an 18-page letter to President Jonathan lashing him for his leadership style. That letter emboldened members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to canvass support for their candidate.
Obasanjo, two years later tore his PDP membership card in public, denouncing his association with the party. He came out openly to endorse Muhammadu Buhari when the Jonathan administration ‘fraudulently’ postponed the election from February 14 to March 28.
He saw that Jonathan’s body language was that of someone who wanted to cling to power by any means necessary. He warned him about the consequences of that by saying, “I sincerely hope that the president is not going for broke and saying ‘look, damn it, it’s either I have it or nobody has it’. I hope that we will not have a coup… I hope we can avoid it.”
He also reminded him of what happened in the Ivory Coast when Laurent Gbagbo lost and refused to hand over power to Alassane Outtarra.
That signaled the end of Jonathan’s political journey. He was defeated in March and handed over power to Buhari on May 29, 2015.
The new sheriff in town rode to power on the mantra of ‘change.’ Most Nigerians took the promises of the APC to heart. Some shed tears of joy whenever Buhari made speeches ahead of the election. On the day of his inauguration, he made his famous statement of “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody.” His supporters and detractors alike saw Buhari as a born again democrat with that statement and were ready to give him another chance.
Political analysts warned that failure to adhere to that famous statement could make him infamous in no time.
Barely three months after that day, Buhari said the exact opposite of what he said on his inauguration. At the US Institute of Peace, while speaking with Dr. Pauline Baker said, “I hope you have a copy of the election results. The constituents, for example that gave me 97% of vote cannot in all honesty be treated on some issues with constituencies that gave me 5%.” That changed the narrative.
While some must have seen it as “a storm in a teacup,” most people saw it as a ‘Tsunami’ that could consume the administration if he walks the talk in that regard. Fast forward to two years later, the President has been accused of matching his words with action. He has ignored the federal character principle by appointing more people of his ethnic group into notable positions.
The clashes of herdsmen and farmers in the past snowballed in invasions of villages in the Middle Belt region. Many accused the President of not being proactive and also taking sides with the Fulani herdsmen.
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Nigerians also accuse the President of not fighting an all encompassing battle against corruption. They claim he is targeting only members of the opposition party. That led Senator Shehu Sani of the APC to say “when it comes to fighting corruption in the National Assembly and the Judiciary and in the larger Nigerian sectors, the President uses insecticide, but when it comes to fighting corruption within the Presidency, they use deodorants.”
It would be recalled that the former president from Ogun State was one of the earliest visitors at Aso Rock when Buhari assumed office. He was also a frequent visitor. All of a sudden the visits stopped. He had been quiet on matters relating to the President until recently when he dropped a bombshell via his letter.
Obasanjo in his letter advised the President not to seek re-election in 2019. Part of it reads: “The lice of poor performance in government, poverty, insecurity, poor economic management, nepotism, gross dereliction of duty, condonation of misdeed, if not outright encouragement of it, lack of progress and hope for the future, lack of national cohesion and poor management of internal political dynamics and widening inequality – are very much with us today,”
“With such lice of general and specific poor performance and crying poverty with us, our fingers will not be dry of ‘blood’,” he added.
A meeting was called on the same day at Aso Rock by President Muhammadu Buhari, which party leaders attended. After the meeting APC national leader, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu, denied that the meeting had anything to do with the former President’s letter.
The Next Edition gathered from a reliable source that the letter has made not just the President but the entire members of the APC uncomfortable. They threaded carefully so they did not respond immediately to the letter.
They discussed the letter and brainstormed on how to reply Obasanjo. The Presidency replied Obasanjo and barely two days after, former Secretary General of the Federation; Babachir Lawal, was arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
Many have linked the arrest to Obasanjo’s letter to the President. Senator Ben Murray Bruce said “All of a sudden Babachir lawal is detained. Maybe other former Presidents should also write letters. Then maybe all of a sudden, we will deal with herdsmen killings and other issues.”
A member of the APC who pleaded for anonymity spoke with The Next Edition in a telephone chat. He said, “Baba (Obasnajo) has said what is in the hearts and mind of almost every Nigerian. There is really nothing special about all he stated in his letter. It is just that coming from him it means a lot. It has rattled the Presidency to be honest.
“What he said does not only affect Buhari it also affects the party as a whole. If we don’t take drastic measures, I am afraid we will lose woefully in 2019. All hope is not lost. We need to re-strategize and look for a suitable Presidential candidate.”
